It said that these data were distorted by the additional bank holiday and the moving of the late May bank holiday for the Diamond Jubilee celebrations.
These estimates also suggested the UK's large negative output gap was widening, it said
The National Institute interprets the term "recession" to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while "depression" is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. It does not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2014.
The NIESR said its track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that its projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2% point when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics.
This comparison can be made only for complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.